AoC number
280
Primary domain
ORG
Secondary domain
AU
Description
These two families of jet aircraft represent more than 11,200 aircraft of the current worldwide fleet of 22,085 large jet aircraft in current operation – more than one-half. No other set of aircraft types will have more affect on the worldwide fleet than these.
In its latest 20-year Global Market Forecast (GMF), the airframe manufacturer, Airbus, projects single aisle short and medium-haul aircraft such as the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 will garner the highest demand, accounting for 71 percent of new deliveries or 20,242 new aircraft valued at $1.8 trillion. Low-cost carriers from emerging markets are expected to drive demand, as Boeing predicts 24,670 new smaller single-aisle aircraft [737- & A320-class] will be needed for those carriers.
These two groups of 737/A320 aircraft are as very safe as illustrated by the accident rate data below:
hull losses hull losses with fatalities
A320/321/319/318 0.16 0.26
737-100/-200 0.89 1.75
737-300/-400/-500 0.25 0.52
737-600/-700/0 0.13 0.26
/-800-/-9000
We simply must keep this huge and significant fleet of 737s and A320s safe as aviation evolves into the future. The worldwide aviation system depends on their ongoing safety performance.
Potential hazard
A careful examination is needed of what safety features of these two outstanding families of aircraft together with their associated training, maintenance and operational environment are working well today and why; plus a careful examination of specific strengths of these aircraft may be vulnerable due to future changes in:
- the aviation system,
- airplane operational usage,
- personnel demographics,
- evolving infrastructure or other considerations
- Because these new derivatives feature complex interactions among many on-board systems, these aircraft shouldn’t be viewed as simple modifications of existing designs, but rather as all-new aircraft.
Last update
2017-08-28
Corroborating sources and comments
http://www.boeing.com/news/techissues/pdf/statsum.pdf
http://www.aviationtoday.com/the-checklist/Airbus-Projects-$4-4-Trillion-Commercial-Aircraft-Market-Through-2032_80236.html#.UnqHbaUe1Ek
The figure below shows an estimation of the withdrawal figures from the worldwide Boeing and Airbus fleet. Starting at about 2015, a steep increase of decommissioned aircraft is to be expected. An operational approach taking into account both the economic and the ecological aspects of available withdrawal will have to be available then if not before.