AoC list

Areas of Change list

Increasingly autonomous aviation systems

Increasing network and device connectedness via the Internet of Things

New manufacturing technologies: additive manufacturing (3D printing) of aircraft parts

Wake Turbulence Separation Recategorization

Decreased ability of pilots to prepare and execute flights deviating from standard operating procedures

Increasing reliance on procedural solutions for operational safety

Simplified certification standards for light general aviation aircraft

Dramatic increases in the fleets of 737 and A320 derivatives

Increasing implementation of Auto Ground Collision Avoidance Systems (Auto-GCAS on civilian airliners)

Increasing disparity between future pilot supply and demand especially among the “feeder supply” of crew experienced in smaller commercial aircraft operations

Introduction of stratospheric aerial platforms for Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance (CNS) Air Traffic Management functions

Downsized vertical fins due to introduction of active flow control rudders for increased yaw control

Introduction of touch-screen displays and voice recognition to the commercial flight deck

Widespread deployment of System Wide Information Management (SWIM) on-demand NAS information services

Increased throughput utilizing improved vertical flight profiles and aids to low-visibility operations

Increased traffic flows involving closely-spaced parallel, converging, and intersecting runway operations

Improved surface operations technologies and procedures

Initiation of collaborative air traffic management

Proliferation of voluntarily-submitted safety information

Decreased utilization of turboprop operations worldwide

Increasing adoption of software defined radio systems in commercial aviation

Single-pilot cockpits for large commercial transports

Socio-economic and political crises affecting aviation

Use of non-approved and/or poorly maintained maintenance tools

Shift from clearance-based to trajectory-based air traffic control

Significant imbalances in regional personnel supply and demand

Operational tempo and economic considerations affecting air traffic controller alertness

Increasing use of Controller Pilot Data Link Communication (CPDLC) for weather information and advisories/clearances

Shift in the demographics of newly-hired air traffic controllers compared with retiree skills and interests

Reluctance among operators to implement voluntary proactive safety mitigations

Decreasing availability of qualified maintenance staff at stations other than home base of operation

New pilot licensing standards

Aging maintenance workforce

Smaller organizations and owners operating aging aircraft

Introduction of new training methodologies for maintenance staff

Shortage of rare-earth elements

Increasing demands for limited radio frequency bandwidth

New aircraft recovery systems in general aviation and commercial aircraft

World wide climate change trending towards warmer temperatures

Worldwide implementation of SMS

High-density passenger cabin configurations

Novel technologies to move aircraft from gate-to-runway and runway-to-gate

Increasing single-engine taxi operations or taxi on only inboard engines of 4-engine aircraft

Operational tempo and economic considerations affecting fatigue among maintenance personnel

Increasing use of virtual mockups for maintenance training and for evaluation of requirements

Paradigm shift from paper based to electronic based maintenance records and databases

Changes in the qualifications of maintenance personnel

Entry into service of commercial, space-tourism passenger vehicles

Increasing frequency of commercial and government space vehicle traffic

Standards and certification requirements for sub-orbital vehicles

Introduction of sub-orbital commercial vehicles

Increasing functionality and use of personal electronic devices by passengers and flight crew

Supplementary passenger protection and restraint systems

Operational tempo and economic considerations affecting flight crew alertness

Shortened and compressed type rating training for self-sponsored pilot candidates

Increased dependence on synthetic training in lieu of full-realism simulators

Introduction of new training methodologies for operation of advanced aircraft

Shift in responsibility for separation assurance from ATC to flight crew

Introduction of Non-Deterministic Approaches (NDA) and artificial intelligence (self learning) in aviation systems

Increasing amount of information available to flight crew

New surface traffic flow management technologies

Increasing manufacturer sales price incentives due to expanding competitive environment

Increasing numbers of migratory birds near airports

Increasing frequency of hostile acts against the aviation system

Changing management and labor relationships in aviation

Language barriers in aviation

Changes in aviation fuel composition

Increasingly stringent noise and emissions constraints on aviation operations

Increased need to monitor incident and accident precursor trends

Increasing use of Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) products in aviation

Assessment of user fees within the aviation system to recover costs of operation

Growth in aviation system throughput

Operation of low-cost airlines

Accelerated transition of pilots from simple to complex aircraft

Increasing numbers of Light Sport Aircraft

Emerging alternate operational models in addition to hub-and-spoke concepts AoC number

Very long-range operations, polar operations, and ETOPS flights.

Increasing operations of cargo aircraft

Increased operations of lighter-than-air vehicles including dirigibles and airships AoC number

Increasing utilization of RNAV/RNP departures and approaches by smaller aircraft

Redesigned or dynamically reconfigured airspace

Increasing operations of military and civilian unmanned aerial systems in shared military, civilian, and special use airspace

Increasing dependence on in-flight electronic databases

Introduction of artificial intelligence in ATM systems

Increasing interactions between highly-automated ground-based and aircraft-based systems

Changing approaches to ATM warning and alert systems

Increasing reliance on satellite-based systems for Communications, Navigations, and Surveillance (CNS) Air Traffic Management functions

Increasing heterogeneity of hardware and software within the ANS system

Changing design, operational, and maintenance expertise involving air navigation system (ANS) equipment

Evolution in the type and quantity of information used by ATM personnel

Technologies and procedures enabling reduced separation

Reduction in numbers of aviation personnel familiar with previous generation technology and practices

Increasing size of maintenance, ATM, and operations databases

Increasing complexities within future air transportation systems

Evolution in lines of authority, command and responsibilities within the air transport system

Global organizational models

Economic incentives to form partnerships and outsource organizational activities

Societal pressure to find individuals and organizations criminally liable for errors in design and operations

Remote Virtual Tower (RVT) operational concepts

Shift toward performance-based solutions and regulations

Trend toward privatization of government ATC systems and airports

Delegation of responsibility from the regulating authority to the manufacturing, operating or maintaining organization

Changing human factors assumptions for implementing technology

Highly-integrated, interdependent aircraft systems

Ongoing electronic component miniaturization

Increasing use of composite structural materials

Increasing implementation of Electronic Flight Bag (EFB) for efficient and safe operations

Entry into service of Very Light Jets

New glass-cockpit designs in general aviation aircraft

Next-generation in-flight entertainment and business systems

New cockpit warning and alert systems

Advanced supplementary weather information systems

Emergence of high-energy propulsion, power, and control systems

New cockpit and cabin surveillance and recording systems

Advanced vehicle health management systems

Reliance on automation supporting a complex air transportation system

Air traffic composed of a mix of aircraft and capabilities

Accelerating scientific and technological advances enabling improved performance, decreased fuel burn, and reduced noise

New hypersonic aircraft

New supersonic transport aircraft

Introduction of new runway-independent aircraft concepts

Changes in design roles and responsibilities among manufacturing organizations

Introduction of new aircraft aerodynamic and propulsion configurations